The Impact of Geopolitical Conditions on the Financial Position of the G20 Countries
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55707/eb.v11i2.146Keywords:
G20, Russian-Ukrainian conflict, macroeconomic variables, factor analysis, non-hierarchical clustering of countries, financial benefit of countriesAbstract
In February 2022, the global political public faced with the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which led to the imposition of sanctions against Russia by individual countries, and these sanctions limited and therefore affected the global economy. The aim of this paper is to analyze the change in the financial position of the G20 countries from the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to the present, which is shown by the values of macroeconomic variables. In the research, we will take into account the values of the selected macroeconomic variables at the end of 2021 (the closest cut-off time to the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict) and at the end of 2022 (the last available data at the time of writing this research). We will classify the G20 countries into two groups gradually. First, with the help of factor analysis, we will classify all selected macroeconomic variables into principal components that will show the synthetic macroeconomic characteristics of countries, and then we will calculate the difference in values between 2022 and 2021 for each principal component. Based on the calculated differences and with the method of non-hierarchical clustering, we will then classify all G20 countries into the two groups of countries described earlier. Then we will determine to which countries the Russian-Ukrainian conflict brings financial benefit, and to which countries the Russian-Ukrainian conflict brings financial damage.
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